Tropical Cyclone Bheki Approaches Réunion and Mauritius with Mixed Predictions

Tropical Cyclone Bheki passed near Mauritius and Réunion on November 21, 2024, bringing moderate rain and winds of 74 km/h. It is currently exhibiting mixed predictions regarding its intensity, with expectations of weakening as it encounters less favorable conditions. Bheki is the second named storm of the 2024/25 cyclone season and has already made a notable impact in the region.

On November 21, 2024, Tropical Cyclone Bheki passed close to the main island of Mauritius and Réunion, producing moderate rainfall and sustained winds recorded at 74 km/h (46 mph). The cyclone’s future intensity remains uncertain due to various environmental factors, including its warm air concentration limited to below 700 hPa and marginal sea surface temperatures of approximately 26 °C (78.8 °F), which are not ideal for cyclone development.

As of 09:00 UTC on November 22, Bheki began to slow and stall southwest of La Réunion, influenced by local terrain. Current forecasts indicate a southwest trajectory for the storm, which is expected to gain speed as it moves away from the island and into the areas influenced by the Mascarene High, a significant high-pressure system. Recent satellite observations indicate renewed convective activity near the cyclone’s center, offering some potential for strengthening in the immediate future, as per numerical weather models.

Nevertheless, as the storm encounters drier air and the jet stream moves away, it is projected to weaken below 65 km/h (40 mph) over the next 24 hours. Predictions regarding its intensity are mixed, with certain models suggesting a temporary strengthening before a decline, while moderate rains are anticipated over Mauritius and Réunion until November 25. Bheki is noted as the second named storm of the 2024/25 South-West Indian Ocean Cyclone season, having originally formed on November 14 and reaching its peak as an Intense Tropical Cyclone on November 18, making it one of the strongest November hurricanes on record in the region.

Tropical cyclones are significant weather events characterized by intense winds, rain, and potential for widespread damage. The current cyclone, Bheki, reflects the complexity of storm dynamics influenced by environmental conditions including sea surface temperatures, atmospheric pressure, and prevailing winds. Observations and models play crucial roles in predicting storm strength and behavior, enabling preparedness efforts in affected regions. The Southwest Indian Ocean sees these storms with varying intensity, and Bheki represents a particular case due to its development and the challenges it faces during its lifecycle.

In summary, Tropical Cyclone Bheki is expected to continue affecting Mauritius and Réunion with moderate rainfall and variable wind strength. Its trajectory and intensity remain under close scrutiny due to the potential for both strengthening and weakening in the coming hours. The cyclone exemplifies the unpredictable nature of tropical systems, with its significant impact on the region noted as part of the active 2024/25 South-West Indian Ocean Cyclone season.

Original Source: watchers.news