Devastating Impact of Tropical Cyclone Chido on Mayotte

Tropical cyclone Chido hit Mayotte on December 14, 2023, becoming the strongest storm in 90 years with severe winds and rainfall. Despite accurate warnings, the storm caused significant destruction and loss of life. The cyclone also impacted Mozambique before weakening, and while Météo-France acknowledges its rarity, the role of climate change remains unclear. The upcoming cyclone season could see above-normal activity according to weather forecasts.

Tropical cyclone Chido struck Mayotte on December 14, 2023, with wind speeds exceeding 200 km/h and gusts surpassing 225 km/h. According to Météo-France, this event marked the strongest storm to impact Mayotte in at least 90 years. Accompanied by torrential rainfall totaling 176 mm within 12 hours, the cyclone also generated dangerous sea conditions with average wave heights exceeding 5 meters. Notably, its intensity was sufficient to destroy some observational structures of Météo-France.

In response to the disaster, French President Emmanuel Macron declared a national mourning period. A significant emergency and relief operation was initiated, as preliminary reports indicated that numerous residents on Mayotte may have perished. The island, being unaccustomed to such extreme tropical cyclones and featuring many informal housing arrangements, faced substantial human and infrastructural losses despite timely warnings from Météo-France.

Warnings issued over 50 hours prior included an amber alert on December 13 at 7 AM local time, escalating to a red alert the same evening, followed by a rarely issued violet alert on December 14 at 7 AM. Chido pursued an atypical trajectory, bypassing Madagascar, which would likely have weakened it, and instead directly impacted Mayotte.

Following its landfall on Mayotte, Chido made landfall in Mozambique on December 15 before weakening, contributing to heavy rainfall in both Mozambique and Malawi. Météo-France noted uncertainty regarding the influence of climate change on this cyclone, stating, “This is an extremely rare event not seen for 90 years. Our current state of knowledge doesn’t allow us to draw any conclusions about the role of climate change on the track of the cyclone and on its intensity.”

Furthermore, Météo-France La Réunion functions as the Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre for the South-West Indian Ocean. The RSMC’s seasonal forecast, published on October 31, accurately anticipated an early onset of the 2024-2025 cyclone season, a departure from previous years when impactful systems emerged in January. The outlook projected normal to above normal activity for this cyclone season, estimating 9 to 13 systems, of which four to seven might escalate to tropical cyclone status.

The impact of tropical cyclone Chido on Mayotte has been catastrophic, marking a significant event due to its unprecedented intensity and destructive consequences. Despite timely warnings, the cyclone led to heavy losses, highlighting the vulnerabilities of the region. Météo-France emphasizes the rarity of such events and the ongoing uncertainty regarding climate change’s role. Moving forward, attention should be directed towards improving resilience against future cyclones in vulnerable areas like Mayotte.

Original Source: wmo.int