Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – February 4, 2025

The Pacific Disaster Center’s report dated February 4, 2025, updates on tropical cyclone activity in the Pacific and Indian Oceans, focusing on cyclones Faida, Vince, Taliah, and 15P. While some cyclones are poised for intensification, others are likely to weaken upon landfall. The report also notes an area of interest identified as Invest 92P.

On February 4, 2025, the Pacific Disaster Center issued an activity report concerning tropical cyclones in the Pacific and Indian Oceans. This report includes updates on Tropical Cyclone 11S (Faida), 13S (Vince), 14S (Taliah), 15P, and an area of interest referred to as Invest 92P.

Currently, Tropical Cyclone 11S (Faida) is situated approximately 113 nautical miles southeast of Antananarivo, Madagascar, with final warnings issued. Tropical Cyclone 13S (Vince) is approximately 1741 nautical miles east of Port Louis, Mauritius, while Tropical Cyclone 14S (Taliah) is located about 760 nautical miles east-southeast of the Cocos Islands. Lastly, Tropical Cyclone 15P is about 310 nautical miles southwest of Suva, Fiji, with a final warning as well.

In the Northeast Pacific Ocean, no tropical cyclones are active, and the last report for the 2024 eastern North Pacific Hurricane Season has been released, with routine reporting pausing until May 15, 2025. The Central Pacific Ocean also has no active tropical cyclones, and its reporting will resume on June 1, 2025, during which special outlooks may be issued.

Focusing on Tropical Cyclone 11S (Faida), current analysis displays a favorable atmosphere for intensification prior to landfall in Madagascar, with winds expected to weaken upon interacting with the rugged terrain. Sustained winds are currently at 25 knots with gusts reaching up to 35 knots, but predictions indicate winds might drop to 30 knots post-landfall.

As for Tropical Cyclone 13S (Vince), it maintains sustained winds of 95 knots with gusts up to 115 knots; animated imagery reveals a shifting low-level circulation. Although it is predicted to weaken significantly over Madagascar’s terrain, a recovery in intensity is expected once it re-enters the Mozambique Channel.

Tropical Cyclone 14S (Taliah) exhibits sustained winds of 80 knots and shows signs of developing an eye feature, although it faces marginally favorable environmental conditions due to dry air inflow. Conversely, Tropical Cyclone 15P shows sustained winds of 35 knots but faces rapidly deteriorating conditions due to high wind shear and dry air intrusion.

Finally, an area of interest, referred to as Invest 92P, is located approximately 308 nautical miles west-northwest of Noumea, New Caledonia. It is observed to have a compact low-level circulation center with potential for further development within the next 24 hours, as favorable environmental conditions prevail, with expected winds between 28 and 33 knots.

The February 4, 2025, report highlights the current status of tropical cyclones across the Pacific and Indian Oceans, emphasizing key systems such as Faida, Vince, Taliah, and 15P. While some systems are expected to weaken, others demonstrate potential for intensification, particularly Invest 92P. Continued monitoring will be essential as conditions evolve in the coming days.

Original Source: www.pdc.org