Erdogan’s Opportunities and Challenges in Today’s Geopolitical Landscape

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is experiencing promising developments that may enhance his political and economic goals. Notably, the dismantling of Assad’s regime, potential resolutions to the Kurdish conflict, and improvements in the economy signal positive trends. However, significant risks remain, indicating that these trends may not secure Turkey’s advantageous position in the long term.

In the complex geopolitical landscape, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is experiencing a fortuitous phase. After over 20 years in leadership, he is seeking to extend his rule beyond his 2028 term limits. Emre Peker, an expert on Turkey from the Eurasia Group, notes that Erdogan has an unparalleled opportunity to pursue his foreign policy, security, and economic ambitions now.

Several developments appear to favor Erdogan’s aspirations. Firstly, the regime of Bashar Assad in Syria has been dismantled, a situation that Erdogan has long advocated. The fall of Assad could facilitate the repatriation of over 80,000 Syrian refugees in Turkey and bolster Turkish economic influence in Syria, especially as Ankara prepares for a military collaboration with the new Syrian government led by Ahmad al-Sharaa.

Secondly, there are signs of a potential resolution to the Kurdish issue, as the PKK, the principal Kurdish militant group, has indicated a willingness to cease armed conflict. This historic shift could end a protracted struggle resulting in extensive loss of life, thereby stabilizing the region.

Additionally, a possible ceasefire in Ukraine presents significant opportunities for Turkey’s construction sector amidst reconstruction efforts. Erdogan has adeptly positioned Turkey as a mediator, maintaining good relations with Russia while showing support for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, especially as the U.S. appears to be stepping back from its previous commitments.

Turkey’s economy, while not without challenges, is also showing signs of improvement with a noted reduction in inflation rates to 39%, the lowest in nearly two years. Growth in GDP by 3.2% last year defied expectations and indicates a positive momentum, supported by cautious interest rate cuts from the central bank.

However, challenges loom large. Syria’s situation remains precarious, and instability could easily arise, jeopardizing Turkey’s strategic interests. Peker warns that any resurgence of violence could threaten Erdogan’s plans for economic benefits stemming from a stable Syria.

Regarding the Kurdish matter, the resolution hinges on nuanced negotiations. Erdogan’s alliance with the far-right MHP is essential, yet not sufficient for constitutional changes or early elections that could extend his tenure, making compromise with Kurdish parties critical.

Moreover, the possible shift in U.S. defense commitments could complicate Turkey’s position. While Erdogan may stand to gain from European defense initiatives, it remains uncertain whether European nations will include Turkey in their plans or prefer to keep the employment benefits within their own borders, illustrating a potential loss for Turkey.

Ultimately, despite the current favorable circumstances, Peker highlights that Turkey’s trajectory under Erdogan may not be as assured as it seems. While several factors appear advantageous, they pose intricate risks that could significantly affect Turkey’s future positioning on the international stage.

In conclusion, President Erdogan of Turkey currently benefits from several favorable developments, including the political changes in Syria, potential resolutions to the Kurdish conflict, and an improving economy. However, there are substantial risks associated with these factors, suggesting that the stability and advantages for Turkey may not be guaranteed. Attention must be paid to the evolving geopolitical dynamics which could greatly impact Turkey’s role and influence moving forward.

Original Source: www.gzeromedia.com