Increased Intensity of Rainfall Predicted for Kenya Amid Climate Change

A recent climate study indicates that heavy rainfall in Kenya will intensify due to global warming, with potential impacts on agriculture and infrastructure. Forecasts predict erratic precipitation patterns for the MAM season, emphasizing the need for better disaster preparedness as some areas face drought while others risk flooding.

A recent climate study reveals that heavy rainfall events in Kenya are predicted to escalate in frequency and intensity, attributing these changes to global warming. Published in Theoretical and Applied Climatology, the research by the International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI) outlines potential impacts on agriculture, infrastructure, and overall livelihoods due to the increasing unpredictability of precipitation.

The research indicates that East Africa will witness greater intensity and frequency of heavy rainfall, leading to more frequent flooding. This aligns with recent forecasts from the Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD) and the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC), which anticipate erratic and extreme rainfall for the March-April-May (MAM) season.

KMD’s projections expect near-to-above-average rainfall across parts of western Kenya, the Lake Victoria Basin, and the Rift Valley, while northeastern Kenya and the coastal regions may experience below-average rainfall. The KMD suggests a normal to delayed onset of this season, which may exhibit a poor distribution of rainfall over time and space. This is echoed by ICPAC, which warns of below-normal rainfall across much of Somalia and northern Kenya.

Despite potential rainfall deficits in certain areas, the study warns that when rain does occur, it will likely come in the form of intense downpours. This pattern, coupled with rising temperatures, will critically affect agriculture and local livestock production. Furthermore, extreme rainfall events may trigger flash floods, leading to infrastructure damage, community displacement, and an increase in waterborne diseases.

Historically, Kenya has faced extreme weather patterns, oscillating between drought and flooding, resulting in significant economic and humanitarian issues. In 2024, severe flooding affected Nairobi and Kisumu, displacing thousands. Projections suggest that the frequency of such incidents is likely to rise due to ongoing climate change.

While some regions may experience increased rainfall, areas in northern Kenya and parts of Somalia remain vulnerable to drought, indicating a mixed climate impact across the region. The study also notes that temperature rises in coastal and northern Kenya could exacerbate the effects of heavy rainfall, leading to stronger storm systems due to elevated evaporation rates.

To address these shifting rainfall patterns, the study emphasizes the importance of proactive measures such as early preparedness and enhanced disaster response strategies.

In summary, a new study from ILRI emphasizes the growing intensity and frequency of heavy rainfall in Kenya due to climate change, with significant implications for agriculture, infrastructure, and public health. While some regions will experience increased rainfall, others remain vulnerable to drought. The need for improved disaster preparedness and response strategies is crucial to mitigate the potential risks associated with these changing weather patterns.

Original Source: www.kenyans.co.ke