Impact of Climate Change on Gaborone’s Flooding: An Analysis of February 2025 Events

In February 2025, Gaborone in Botswana faced catastrophic flooding due to extreme rainfall, resulting in 31 fatalities and the displacement of 5,000 residents. An international team of scientists studied the impact of human-induced climate change on this event and concluded that while the intensity of rainfall has increased, quantifying the precise effect of climate change remains challenging. Enhancing flood resilience through better infrastructure and urban planning is essential to address future risks.

In February 2025, Gaborone and southern Botswana experienced catastrophic flooding due to heavy rainfall, leading to the tragic loss of at least 31 lives, including six children in Gaborone. The flooding displaced approximately 5,000 individuals and severely impacted both Botswana and South Africa, closing key ports and government schools while leaving many areas isolated from emergency services.

An international team of scientists evaluated the influence of climate change on this extreme rainfall event, focusing on the maximum rainfall over five days. It was noted that Gaborone often faces flooding during the rainy season, primarily due to inadequate drainage infrastructure that has not adapted to rapid urbanization and increasing population density.

The 5-day heavy rainfall event in February 2025 is regarded as rare, with an anticipated return period of 40 years. Analysis reveals climate change has intensified such events; extrapolating data suggests that in a colder climate, the likelihood of such rainfall would be significantly reduced by approximately 60%. However, climate models yield mixed results regarding the frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall, complicating direct quantification of climate change’s influence.

Further projections indicate that compliance with a warming of 2.6 °C may enhance the intensity of heavy rainfall events in relation to 2025, signaling a clear climate change pattern. Though scientists conclude that human-induced climate change amplified the heavy rainfall leading to flooding, they note the challenge in quantifying its exact impact.

Historically, flooding in urban areas has escalated due to insufficient infrastructure designed to manage heavy rainfall. Roads and drainage systems have been overwhelmed, particularly affecting health clinics in rural areas.

In response, initiatives aimed at enhancing flood resilience are underway. Strategies include improved drainage systems, land-use regulations to limit construction in high-risk zones, and ongoing upgrades to infrastructure. A comprehensive strategy that encompasses multi-hazard assessments and stronger early warning systems is essential for fostering resilience to future extreme weather events.

The floods in Gaborone highlight the significant impact of extreme rainfall and rapid urbanization, exacerbated by climate change. Although scientists highlight the complexity of quantifying climate change’s role, a clear trend demonstrates its contribution to intensified rainfall. Strengthening flood resilience through enhanced urban planning and infrastructure improvements is critical to mitigate the adverse effects of future extreme weather events.

Original Source: www.worldweatherattribution.org