Early Atlantic Disturbance Tracking: Understanding Spring Weather Patterns in 2025

The NHC began tracking its first Atlantic disturbance for 2025 on Monday, ahead of the June 1 hurricane season. While named storms are rare before the season, some tropical activity can occur in spring. The recent disturbance was not expected to develop further, and historically, only a few systems have been recorded from January to May, with March occurrences being particularly rare.

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) commenced monitoring its first Atlantic disturbance for 2025 on Monday, well ahead of the upcoming hurricane season commencing on June 1. While it is uncommon for named storms to appear early in the year, NHC meteorologist Robbie Berg highlighted that some tropical activity in the Atlantic during spring is not entirely unprecedented.

In 2024, the NHC tracked its initial disturbance on April 24, which was a low-pressure system located approximately 900 miles northwest of Cabo Verde, but it dissipated due to strong winds. This was subsequently followed by a tropical wave near Hispaniola in May. Additionally, in the previous year, a low-pressure system that emerged off the northeastern U.S. coast in January was classified as a subtropical storm, marking the Atlantic’s first cyclone of the year.

The disturbance observed this year consisted of a disorganized cluster of showers and thunderstorms located about 700 miles northeast of the northern Leeward Islands. The NHC did not anticipate it developing into a tropical storm and ceased tracking it by Tuesday morning. Berg remarked, “NHC tracks non-tropical systems that have any potential to take on tropical characteristics, both inside and outside of hurricane season.”

Berg indicated that weather systems can be positioned along a spectrum ranging from fully tropical, such as hurricanes, to non-tropical, like winter storms. He noted that non-tropical weather systems frequently develop over the Atlantic and may sometimes display potential for tropical characteristics, as observed with the recent disturbance, albeit with a very low development chance of only 10%.

Since the inception of record-keeping in 1851, there have been 41 documented tropical storms or hurricanes in the Atlantic from January to May. However, systems forming in March remain notably rare. Phil Klotzbach, a hurricane researcher from Colorado State University, stated that the only tropical cyclone ever recorded in the Atlantic during March was a Category 2 hurricane that affected the Leeward Islands and Caribbean in 1908.

The occurrence of the Atlantic disturbance in early 2025 highlights the complexity of meteorological patterns and the potential for limited tropical activity prior to the hurricane season. While the presence of named storms is rare at this time, the tracking of non-tropical systems by the NHC underscores the need for vigilance year-round. Historical records support the notion that early-season weather systems can emerge, albeit infrequently, emphasizing the importance of ongoing monitoring and research in understanding tropical weather patterns.

Original Source: www.nola.com