Potential Cyclone Formation Off West Australia: Heavy Rain Foreseen Across North

A tropical low is expected to develop off Western Australia, with possible cyclone formation. The Bureau of Meteorology confirmed nine cyclones this season, the highest in three years. Humid air will bring heavy rainfall across northern Australia, with significant impacts anticipated. The upcoming weeks could mark one of the most active cyclone seasons in 19 years.

Recent forecasts indicate that a tropical low may form by Friday, situated approximately 500 kilometers off the north coast of Western Australia. This system is predicted to gradually approach the coast, with the potential for development into a cyclone. The Bureau of Meteorology has confirmed nine tropical cyclones in this season, marking the highest figure in three years.

If the tropical low progresses to cyclone status, it will be named Courtney or Dianne, contingent upon the status of another system near the Cocos Islands. An influx of humid air from the north is expected to lead to significant rainfall across northern Australia in the coming weeks, following heavy precipitation already recorded in Queensland, such as 301 millimeters in Townsville over a 24-hour period.

The monsoon trough, a significant factor in the emergence of tropical cyclones in Australia, is returning over the northern Indian Ocean. This development has already resulted in another tropical low forming south of the Cocos Islands. While this system does not pose a direct threat to the mainland, predictions suggest that a new tropical low will develop closer to Western Australia, moving towards water temperatures exceeding 31 degrees Celsius, conducive to cyclone formation.

The Bureau of Meteorology reports that cyclone activity this season includes five cyclones occurring in February, the most significant count since January 2011. The current forecast suggests a mere 10 percent chance for the upcoming low to intensify over the weekend, with a slight increase in likelihood expected early next week, as supported by advanced weather models.

Models indicate a potential trajectory of the cyclone offshore, moving parallel to the Pilbara coast. Nonetheless, cyclone forecasting remains complex, and early caution is warranted regarding possible coastal impacts. Portions of northern Australia are currently experiencing significant rainfall, with parts of the North Tropical Coast and Lower Burdekin recording over 500 millimeters, resulting in localized flooding.

The ongoing surge of tropical moisture is contributing to robust cloud formations across the central outback, concluding a prolonged period of dry weather marked by excessively high temperatures. Forecasts suggest widespread showers and thunderstorms will soon affect all areas of the Northern Territory and northern South Australia. Continued rainfall will likely produce significant accumulations in the upcoming week, bringing the potential for flooding.

Long-range weather models predict that the abundant rainfall may persist into early April, with a considerable chance of median precipitation across parts of northern Australia increasing to 80 percent. The outlook for April indicates a continued trend of wetter-than-average conditions, thereby suggesting that cyclone activity will remain heightened through the end of the wet season. An additional three cyclones this autumn could establish this season as the busiest in 19 years, surpassing historical norms.

The potential formation of a tropical low off the Western Australian coast may signal the start of an active cyclone season. With several regions in Australia already experiencing heavy rainfall and flooding, meteorological forecasts indicate this trend may continue. Cyclone activity is on the rise, and there is a possibility of surpassing historical averages, emphasizing the importance of preparedness and awareness for the forthcoming weeks.

Original Source: www.abc.net.au