Food Security Outlook in Tunisia for 2025: Improvements and Projections

Tunisia’s food security has improved with abundant rainfall boosting 2025 cereal crop conditions. Production in 2024 recovered significantly from previous droughts, with lower import requirements predicted for 2025. Food inflation rates have also eased notably, contributing to a positive outlook for food security in the country.

In March 2025, the food security situation in Tunisia has seen significant improvements due to abundant rainfall and recovery in cereal crop production. Rainfall in January positively impacted the soil moisture levels necessary for the 2025 cereal crops, following dry weather during the initial planting period. Continued favorable conditions and financial support from the National Bank are expected to enhance output prospects in the coming months, potentially leading to above-average yields.

The cereal crop production in 2024 is estimated at approximately 1.5 million tonnes, representing a remarkable recovery from the drought-afflicted output of 2023, which was nearly threefold superior but still approximately 6 percent lower than the five-year average. Despite initial delays in winter grain planting caused by limited rainfall and elevated temperatures, the favorable weather between December 2023 and April 2024 ultimately contributed to improved crop growth in northern and central Tunisia.

For the 2024/25 marketing year, Tunisia’s cereal import requirements are anticipated to be below average at around 3.5 million tonnes. Notably, wheat imports, representing over half of the total cereal imports, are projected at 2 million tonnes, which is about 2 percent higher than the average due to the robust wheat harvest in 2024.

Furthermore, food inflation trends indicate a notable decrease, with rates falling to approximately 7 percent in February 2025, compared to the previous year’s values. This decline is significant, especially as it follows a peak inflation rate of around 16 percent in May 2023, driven primarily by sharp increases in the prices of bovine meat, fish, and poultry, while oil prices exhibited a decrease of approximately 16.2 percent.

In summary, Tunisia’s food security outlook for 2025 reflects a positive trend with increased cereal production following favorable weather conditions and improvements in soil moisture. With cereal import needs projected to be below average and a notable reduction in food inflation rates, the overall food security situation in Tunisia appears to be strengthening as the country progresses through 2025.

Original Source: reliefweb.int