Sudan’s Civil Conflict: Recent Military Developments and Ongoing Humanitarian Crisis

The Sudanese Armed Forces have achieved key victories in Khartoum against the Rapid Support Forces, signaling potential shifts in the civil war. Despite this, fierce fighting continues, exacerbating a severe humanitarian crisis. Control over strategic regions like Khartoum may affect future negotiations, but lasting peace remains distant amidst entrenched divisions.

The current situation in Sudan reflects significant military developments as the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) has achieved notable victories against the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in Khartoum, indicating a potential turning point in the ongoing civil war. However, the civil conflict, now approaching its two-year mark, continues to devastate the nation as fighting persists between these rival forces.

This month, the Sudanese army has celebrated two substantial victories. Army chief Abdel Fattah al-Burhan declared Khartoum “free” after regaining control of the airport from the RSF, who initially captured it at the beginning of the conflict. This victory follows the SAF’s recent recapture of the presidential palace, emphasizing a counteroffensive that commenced in September 2022.

The recapture of Khartoum holds significant implications for the conflict’s trajectory. The SAF aims to shift battlefield momentum and enhance its international standing as both al-Burhan and RSF leader Mohamed Hamdan “Hemedti” Dagalo vie for regional support. Control over Khartoum could also offer the SAF strategic leverage in potential future peace negotiations, notwithstanding its refusal to engage in talks thus far.

Despite these military advances, the underlying conflict persists, rooted in disagreements regarding the integration of the RSF into the national armed forces. Both factions maintain control over extensive territories and continue fierce clashes, suggesting that peace remains elusive. Fighting continues across various regions, including Darfur and Kordofan, further complicating the dynamics of the conflict.

The humanitarian crisis arising from this civil war is severe, with over 12 million individuals displaced and widespread food insecurity affecting approximately 25 million people. Reports of systematic aid blockage and resource exploitation by both factions exacerbate the dire circumstances, with millions in urgent need of assistance as the health infrastructure collapses.

Looking ahead, experts warn that the ongoing power struggle could lead to Sudan’s fragmentation, recalling the lessons of South Sudan’s secession in 2011. A prolonged war of attrition seems likely in the absence of compromise from either side, even as international actors urge negotiations to prevent further escalation and humanitarian disaster.

In conclusion, Sudan’s civil conflict persists despite recent military gains by the Sudanese Armed Forces in Khartoum. The ongoing humanitarian crisis continues to deepen, with millions displaced and at risk of starvation. The absence of a political resolution—combined with entrenched combat on both sides—indicates that stability is unlikely in the near future. Should current trends continue, the prospect of Sudan fragmenting further remains a significant concern.

Original Source: www.aljazeera.com