AccuWeather Forecasts Near to Above Average 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season

AccuWeather forecasts a near to above average 2025 Atlantic hurricane season with 13 to 18 named storms expected, including potential impacts on the U.S. Virgin Islands. Factors influencing this prediction include warm sea surface temperatures and ENSO cycles. Residents are advised to prepare and stay updated as the season approaches.

AccuWeather meteorologists project a “near to above average” Atlantic hurricane season for 2025, as detailed in a report released on Friday. Residents of the Virgin Islands are advised to prepare for this season, which spans from June 1 to November 30, and remain informed regarding potential threats.

The forecast anticipates between 13 and 18 named storms, with 7 to 10 hurricanes, and 3 to 5 major hurricanes reaching Category 3 strength or higher, alongside an expected 3 to 6 direct impacts on the United States. Alex DaSilva, the lead hurricane expert from AccuWeather, noted a 20% chance of exceeding 18 named storms this year.

Several factors contributed to this prediction, including unusually warm ocean temperatures across the Atlantic and the positioning of the Bermuda-Azores High, which impacts cyclone steering. Furthermore, the presence of tropical waves emerging from the west coast of Africa is pivotal in influencing storm formation.

The report highlights the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycles, specifically how La Niña and El Niño affect tropical cyclones. During a La Niña period, decreased wind shear facilitates cyclone development in the Atlantic, whereas El Niño tends to increase wind shear, hindering storm formation.

A neutral ENSO phase may occur during the 2025 hurricane season, as noted by DaSilva, who suggested that despite a lingering La Niña, a transition to neutral conditions is anticipated by summer. This neutral phase could also foster an active storm season, although not as robustly as during strong La Niña years.

DaSilva elaborated that La Niña influences the number of tropical waves from Africa through a stronger African Easterly Jet, which can bolster storm development. He emphasized that although a neutral ENSO is expected, it would typically support a moderately active tradewind jet that may also facilitate tropical development.

The report outlines that warm sea surface temperatures will persist throughout the hurricane season. These conditions boost the likelihood of lower surface pressure and subsequently enhance tropical cyclones’ development potential. Additionally, the Bermuda-Azores High’s movements influence the paths of storms, determining whether they veer out to sea or head towards land.

DaSilva also related that the meteorologists analyzed previous years with similar atmospheric conditions, identifying 2017 as a comparative example due to its neutral ENSO and high storm occurrence, including Hurricanes Irma and Maria. This analysis underpins the concern for residents in the northeast Caribbean season.

DaSilva emphasized the critical importance for residents to remain vigilant, regardless of recent years without hurricane impacts. A comprehensive hurricane plan and preparedness are imperative, and residents are urged to stay informed of local emergency strategies as circumstances may differ from pre-pandemic norms.

As the beginning of the hurricane season approaches, additional forecasts will be released, and individuals are encouraged to monitor updates for tropical activity outside the expected timeframe. Weather alerts and forecasts are accessible through VITEMA and the National Weather Service, while the Source Weather Page delivers daily updates and forecast videos.

In conclusion, AccuWeather’s forecast indicates a near to above average Atlantic hurricane season for 2025, emphasizing the necessity for residents to remain prepared and informed. The combination of warm sea surface temperatures, the ENSO cycle’s role, and historical analog years suggests a heightened risk of hurricane impacts, particularly in the Virgin Islands. Vigilance and preparedness are essential as the season approaches.

Original Source: stcroixsource.com