The Impending Threat of Major Earthquakes: Understanding The Big One

A recent 7.7 magnitude earthquake in Myanmar underscores the looming threat of major seismic events, particularly “The Big One” expected along the Cascadia Subduction Zone. Historically, the most powerful quake was the 1960 Valdivia Earthquake in Chile at 9.4-9.6 magnitude. Experts warn of significant casualties and damages from anticipated future earthquakes in North America and Asia, although timing remains uncertain.

A recent earthquake measuring 7.7 on the Richter scale has struck Myanmar, impacting cities like Mandalay and prompting concerns about casualties and destruction across neighboring countries, including Thailand. This event underscores the unpredictability of major earthquakes, particularly “The Big One,” which is anticipated but not yet realized. Although the exact timing remains unknown, the inevitable occurrence fuels ongoing discussions regarding earthquake preparedness.

Historically, the most powerful earthquake recorded was the 1960 Valdivia Earthquake in Chile, which had a magnitude of 9.4-9.6. Lasting around ten minutes, this catastrophic event triggered tsunamis that affected coastal areas as far as Hawaii, Japan, and Australia, with estimated fatalities ranging from 1,000 to 6,000. Moreover, the 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake, registering 9.2-9.3, remains one of the most devastating in recorded history, resulting in over 200,000 deaths across multiple countries.

The term “The Big One” originally referred to an anticipated significant earthquake expected along the San Andreas Fault in California. This concept gained traction following a 1953 study that indicated the potential for powerful earthquakes along this fault line, which stretches over 1,000 kilometers. Predictions have suggested shakes as severe as 7-8 on the Richter scale with disastrous impacts on cities including Los Angeles and San Francisco.

Pop culture has reflected on The Big One in various films, notably the 1974 movie “Earthquake,” which showcased a technology allowing audiences to feel tremors, and more recently,”San Andreas” in 2015 starring Dwayne Johnson. Although these narratives point to the San Andreas Fault, recent geological studies suggest the Cascadia Subduction Zone, located north of this fault, may be where the next significant quake occurs.

The Cascadia Subduction Zone is anticipated to experience an earthquake measuring between 8 and 9.2 on the Richter scale, potentially causing massive destruction across the densely populated coastal areas from Vancouver to Northern California. Experts warn that casualty rates could soar into the tens of thousands, rendering millions homeless and destroying critical infrastructure as connectivity may fail immediately post-quake.

Geologists estimate there is a 37 percent chance that The Big One could strike by 2060, based on insights from the last major quake in this region in the early 1700s, which caused extensive damage and tsunamis even affecting Japan. With predictions varying, the consensus remains that an earthquake of significant magnitude will occur, but when is still undetermined.

In addition to The Big One in the United States, experts indicate that a similarly severe earthquake, potentially around 8 on the Richter scale, could strike the Himalayas, impacting populous areas in North India and Nepal. This earthquake, frequently referred to as The Great Himalayan Earthquake, poses an even greater threat in terms of casualties and property damage. Moreover, the Marikina Valley fault near Luzon in the Philippines is another significant area of concern, where a potential earthquake measuring 7 could also cause substantial casualties, echoing the unpredictability of seismic activity worldwide.

In conclusion, while recent seismic events like the earthquake in Myanmar highlight nature’s unpredictability, they also reinforce the importance of preparedness for future major earthquakes. The prospect of The Big One, particularly from the Cascadia Subduction Zone, raises significant concerns regarding potential casualties and destruction, with predictions suggesting a substantial risk in the years to come. Furthermore, the potential threats posed by earthquakes in regions such as the Himalayas and the Philippines must not be overlooked, prompting a call for enhanced awareness and readiness against such natural disasters.

Original Source: indianexpress.com