The Conclusion of the Kurdish Insurgency: A Pivotal Shift in Regional Dynamics

The Kurdish insurgency is nearing an end, a response to shifts from the October 2023 Gaza war. Overtures toward PKK leader Abdullah Öcalan signal a significant change where the PKK may voluntarily disband. The changing geopolitical landscape, including Israel’s potential re-engagement with the Kurds, poses new challenges for Turkey.

The cessation of the 40-year Kurdish insurgency marks a pivotal moment in the historical relationship between Turkey, Syria, and the broader Middle Eastern landscape. This development is primarily driven by the ongoing fallout from the Gaza conflict that commenced in October 2023. The potential for Kurdish influence to be used by Israel against Turkey’s interests may necessitate Turkey’s overtures to Abdullah Öcalan, the leader of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK).

Anticipations suggest the PKK will soon officially disband, indicating the first instance in the Turkish Republic’s century-long history in which a Kurdish insurgency concludes voluntarily rather than militarily. Öcalan, currently serving a life sentence on İmralı Island, recently called for peace and a democratic society, urging his followers to lay down arms and convene a congress. The PKK responded affirmatively, agreeing to comply with his directives.

The PKK-led insurgency represents the most significant of various Kurdish movements against Turkish central authority, beginning with a series of revolts from 1925 to 1937. These earlier uprisings were violently suppressed, leading to severe repercussions for the Kurdish populace. The PKK’s armed struggle began in 1984 under Abdullah Öcalan’s leadership, who subsequently gained influence over Kurdish factions in Syria, particularly during the Syrian civil war.

Following the Hamas attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, the geopolitical landscape in the Middle East underwent significant changes. Turkey’s leadership faces new challenges emerging from a diminishing Iranian influence alongside a new, pro-Israel U.S. administration. Ankara is particularly concerned about Israel potentially leveraging its historical relationship with the Kurds against Turkey’s interests, especially given that a considerable portion of the Kurdish population resides within Turkey.

Historically, Israel established connections with Kurdish factions in Iraq in the 1960s, an alliance that has the potential for revival with current tensions in the region. If Israel extends military and diplomatic support to Kurdish groups in Syria, it could pose new threats to Turkey’s national security. Meanwhile, the situation in Iraq, particularly the autonomy established by the Kurdistan Regional Government following the Gulf War and U.S. incursions, illustrates the evolving power dynamics of Kurdish entities in the region.

The profound transformations brought about by the Gaza conflict, particularly the collapse of the Syrian regime, raise the specter of similar instability in Iran. Should Iran become embroiled in similar struggles, the momentum may favor Kurdish aspirations for an independent entity, compelling Turkey to respond proactively.

Overall, the first voluntary end to a Kurdish insurgency underlines a fundamental shift in the Turko-Kurdish dynamic, shaped by larger regional transformations and geopolitical strategies enforced by external powers, particularly Israel and the United States. The historical significance of these events may continue to unfold in the coming years, reshaping relations in the Middle East.

In conclusion, the potential conclusion of the Kurdish insurgency represents a critical juncture in Turkish and regional history. With the 2023 Gaza conflict acting as a catalyst, Turkey faces significant challenges regarding the Kurdish influence in Syria and its relationship with Israel, threatening its national security. The development emphasizes the importance of diplomatic engagement between Turkey and Kurdish factions, particularly in light of the profound changes underway in Middle Eastern geopolitics.

Original Source: www.realinstitutoelcano.org