India Anticipates Normal Monsoon Season in 2025 According to Experts

India is expected to experience a normal monsoon from June to September 2025, with forecasts based on the absence of El Niño conditions. This weather pattern is vital for the country’s agriculture, as it accounts for around 70 to 75% of annual precipitation. The IMD is yet to release official forecasts, but indicators point towards favorable conditions for crop growth.

India is expected to receive a ‘normal’ south-west monsoon between June and September this year, according to expert forecasts. Akshay Deoras, a research scientist at the National Centre for Atmosphere Science, University of Reading, noted that a blended forecast from the UK Met Office, the National Centers for Environmental Prediction, and the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts indicates average to above-average rainfall. The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) will soon release its initial predictions for the monsoon season.

If predictions from these global agencies are accurate, India will experience its second consecutive year of normal monsoon rains in 2025, following below-normal precipitation in 2023. During the critical June-September period, approximately 70 to 75% of India’s annual precipitation occurs, which significantly enhances crop prospects and water reservoir levels.

Deoras emphasized that the models suggest an overall normal monsoon season, primarily due to the absence of adverse effects from the El Niño Southern Oscillation. However, he indicated that it would be premature to ascertain the timing of the monsoon’s onset in Kerala or its progression throughout the country.

The IMD indicated a 75% chance of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation transitioning to a ‘neutral’ state by April 2025, which would be favorable for a typical monsoon season ahead. Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, Director General of IMD, confirmed that El Niño conditions are expected to be absent this monsoon season. Furthermore, neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions are also anticipated to persist during this period.

In 2024, rainfall exceeded predictions by 8%, falling under the ‘above normal’ category as per the IMD’s forecast. Conversely, monsoon rainfall in 2023 was deemed below normal and inconsistent, despite initial predictions of a typical season. Almost half of India’s farmland relies on monsoon rains for kharif crops, such as paddy, pulses, and oilseeds, as well as ensuring ample soil moisture for the rabi or winter crops, including wheat and oilseeds.

Typically, the southwest monsoon commences over Kerala by June 1 and broadens to encompass the entire nation within the first week of July. The monsoon begins to recede from northwest India in mid-September, concluding by October 15.

In summary, forecasts suggest a favorable monsoon season for India this year, contingent on the absence of El Niño conditions. Predictive models indicate that rainfall will potentially be average to above normal, crucial for the agricultural sector. The timely onset of the monsoon remains uncertain, but the overall outlook appears positive for the cultivation of essential crops that rely on seasonal rains.

Original Source: www.financialexpress.com