Turkiye’s Diplomatic Balancing Act: Navigating Between Russia and Ukraine

Turkiye is balancing support for Ukraine with relations to Russia amidst ongoing talks in Istanbul. While Putin’s absence marked a missed opportunity for a landmark meeting, discussions were held, resulting in a prisoner swap agreement. Analysts suggest Turkiye’s diplomatic involvement signals its rising influence, crucial for its broader geopolitical strategy in the region.

In the wake of the ongoing war in Ukraine, Turkiye finds itself in a delicate position, balancing its support for Ukraine while maintaining robust ties with Russia. This week in Istanbul, there was anticipation surrounding a potential meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, marking the first encounter since the outbreak of conflict in 2022. However, as confirmed by the Kremlin, Putin will not attend, though delegations from both nations convened, resulting in an agreement for a prisoner swap. Notably, this gathering marked the first direct discussions between the two sides since the war began.

The talks in Istanbul are emblematic of Turkiye’s significant role in seeking peace amid one of the world’s most pressing geopolitical crises. In fact, Turkiye has hosted similar talks in the past, demonstrating its position as a mediator. This week’s meeting could have been a diplomatic coup for Turkiye—if it had culminated in an in-person dialogue between Putin and Zelenskyy. Nevertheless, analysts point out that Turkiye’s involvement in the negotiations itself is a considerable win, highlighting its emerging role on the world stage.

Ziya Meral from the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) mentioned, “Turkiye stands to win diplomatically whichever way the talks go,” despite skepticism regarding the potential for an effective peace framework to arise from the discussions. He believes that Turkiye’s ability to engage with both the United States and Russia showcases its success as a negotiator in regional dynamics.

Over the past decade and a half, Turkiye has transformed into a notable diplomatic player, marking its influence in various regions, including Africa and the Middle East. Omer Ozkizilcik, a non-resident fellow at The Atlantic Council, emphasized that Turkiye’s protective stance on its interests has facilitated a new negotiation model. This strategy departs from traditional mediators to a more involved role where Turkiye directly influences outcomes in conflicts pertinent to its own geopolitical interests.

The relationship between Turkiye and Russia is complex—marked by cooperation alongside fierce rivalries, particularly over influence in regions like Syria and Libya. Since the 2013 Syrian civil war, Turkiye’s backing of opposition forces stands in stark contrast to Russia’s support for the Assad regime. Such tensions escalated in 2015 when Turkiye shot down a Russian fighter jet—a moment that brought their diplomatic relations close to breakdown, although they later reconciled.

Throughout the conflict, despite supplying Ukraine with military drones, Turkiye has maintained a cordial relationship with Moscow. Ozkizilcik noted, “The benefits of good relations with Turkiye seem to outweigh Russia’s unhappiness with some aspects of Turkish policy.” Turkiye has also opposed Western sanctions against Russia and asserted its independence in foreign policy decisions, further demonstrating its unique position.

Through this balancing act, Turkiye has solidified its ties with Ukraine, proving crucial in facilitating agreements to enable grain exports amidst the war. Zelenskyy has publicly acknowledged Turkiye’s ongoing support, which he views as foundational to strengthening diplomacy in the region. Acknowledging Erdogan’s role, Zelenskyy expressed gratitude, particularly around the current talks and previous support.

Turkiye’s growing global prestige lies in its diplomatic approach. Success in these high-stake talks would not only elevate its status but could enhance relationships with both Ukraine and Russia. According to Steven Horrell from the Center for European Policy Analysis, “Turkiye would certainly gain some prestige from hosting the talks, even more so if they are successful.” Consequently, Turkiye is positioning itself not only as a regional leader but also as a significant player on the world stage, ideally aiming for a peace agreement that would serve multiple stakeholders.

Turkiye’s intricate maneuvering between conflicting alliances highlights the complexities of its foreign policy strategy. As it promotes diplomatic discussions in Istanbul, the outcomes will certainly influence future relations in the region, particularly concerning its ties to both Russia and Ukraine.

In summary, Turkiye’s diplomatic balancing act between Russia and Ukraine remains precarious yet opportunistic, exemplified by its hosting of the recent talks in Istanbul. Despite the absence of high-profile figures like Putin, the ongoing dialogues signify Turkiye’s strengthening role as a mediator. Its relationships with both nations continue to evolve amidst the complexities of military and geopolitical interests. As the international community watches, the outcome of these negotiations may bolster Turkiye’s status as a regional power.

Original Source: www.aljazeera.com