NOAA Forecasts Above Average Hurricane Activity for Atlantic Season 2025

NOAA anticipates an above-average Atlantic hurricane season in 2025, estimating 13-19 named storms and 6-10 hurricanes. The forecast highlights the need for early preparation as staffing challenges persist within forecasting offices. Rapid intensification of storms remains a pressing concern due to climate change.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has issued a forecast indicating an above-average Atlantic hurricane season ahead. Meteorologist Ken Graham, who is also the director of the National Weather Service, revealed during a recent news conference, “We’re really looking at an above normal season. We’re calling for 13 to 19 named storms.”

When winds reach 39 mph, storms are given names. NOAA estimates that between six to ten of these storms will escalate into hurricanes, with winds exceeding 74 mph. They also anticipate three to five hurricanes will reach Category 3 or higher, which is categorized as major hurricanes. However, the forecasts do not specify potential landfall locations or whether these storms will strike U.S. shores, leaving residents urged to prepare early.

Graham emphasized the importance of being proactive saying, “It’s a good time to go out there and get your supplies and your kit and put it together. We’ve got to be ready.” Now is the ideal time to stock up, as he pointed out, “No lines for supplies today. No lines for gas, no lines for plywood, no lines for water.”

The expectations for increased storm activity this season are attributed to warmer ocean temperatures, a trend that aligns with climate change impacts. Graham noted, “The warmer ocean temperatures is really consistent with us being in a more active season.” Additionally, the West African Monsoon is also expected to contribute by generating storms that can travel across the Atlantic towards the United States.

Challenges persist within NOAA as many of its local offices experience a shortage of staff, a consequence of workforce reductions initiated during the previous administration. This year alone, nearly 600 employees have left the National Weather Service. Nonetheless, NOAA leadership assured that the National Hurricane Center is adequately staffed for the upcoming season.

Laura Grimm, the acting administrator of NOAA, stated, “We are fully staffed at the hurricane center, and we definitely are ready to go.” She also highlighted that prioritizing hurricane preparedness is a top goal for the administration. Conversely, many of the nation’s 122 local forecasting offices face staffing issues, essential for monitoring local impacts post-hurricane, such as flooding and rainfall.

Graham reiterated his commitment to ensuring resources are available at local offices when a hurricane threatens land, adding he is actively pursuing long-term staffing solutions. The official hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30, with peak activity typically occurring in late summer and early fall.

Interestingly, NOAA’s predictions align with estimates from various independent research institutions, which forecast an average of about eight hurricanes for the upcoming season, as found on a tracking website managed by Colorado State University and the Barcelona Supercomputing Center.

Last year, NOAA’s predictions of a record-high hurricane season proved accurate with 18 named storms and 11 hurricanes. Five hurricanes made landfall in the United States, notable among them were Hurricane Helene, which struck Florida’s Gulf Coast, leading to severe inland flooding in states like North Carolina, resulting in over 150 fatalities. Another impactful storm was Hurricane Milton, which intensified to a Category 3 hurricane and caused tornadoes along its path.

The phenomenon of rapid intensification remains a crucial factor in hurricane development. Studies suggest that climate change has made such rapid intensification increasingly frequent. A 2023 study revealed that between 2001 and 2020, tropical cyclones were approximately 29% more likely to rapidly intensify compared to data from 1971 to 1990, highlighting the evolving risks associated with climate change.

In summary, NOAA forecasts an above-average Atlantic hurricane season for 2025, with expectations of increased storm activity driven partly by climate change. Residents are urged to prepare early, as staff shortages in local forecasting offices may impact the ability to respond to storm events. Historical data indicates trends toward rapid storm intensification, heightening the urgency for comprehensive preparation in vulnerable coastal areas.

Original Source: www.nbcnews.com