ISW Warns US Aid Cuts to Ukraine Could Benefit Russia and Geopolitical Adversaries

The ISW warns that cutting military aid to Ukraine would weaken the US negotiating position and benefit Russia. Tensions escalated during a recent meeting between Trump and Zelenskyy over aid and peace talks. US support, crucial for Ukrainian defense, has exceeded $65.9 billion. The ISW emphasizes the geopolitical risks of diminishing aid, which could embolden adversaries like Iran and North Korea.

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has issued a warning that any suspension of military aid to Ukraine would undermine the United States’ negotiating power and could shift the battlefield dynamics in favor of Russia. Recent discussions between US President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy raised concerns about the potential halting of military support, although no definitive decision has been reached so far.

During a contentious meeting on February 28, President Trump criticized President Zelenskyy for his approach towards peace talks with Russia, accusing him of being reckless. President Zelenskyy argued that any ceasefire would necessitate security guarantees, referencing Russia’s failure to uphold previous agreements.

Since the onset of the invasion, the United States has provided over $65.9 billion in aid to Ukraine, positioning itself as the foremost military supporter. President Zelenskyy has emphasized the crucial role of US assistance in Ukraine’s ability to continue its defense against Russian aggression.

The ISW notably connected Russian territorial gains to interruptions in Western assistance, illustrating that when support diminished in spring 2024, Russia capitalized on the opportunity for expansion. The consistent flow of Western aid has been vital in impeding Russian advancements and disrupting its defense capabilities.

Ukrainian forces have effectively utilized US-provided systems such as the Patriot air defense and HIMARS long-range strike systems to inflict severe losses on Russian troops while maintaining their defensive positions. This sustained military pressure, combined with Russia’s anticipated economic difficulties in 2025, could enhance the United States’ leverage in peace negotiations.

According to the ISW, discontinuing US military assistance could embolden President Vladimir Putin to escalate his demands, reinforcing his conviction in achieving total victory through military means. The analysis also underscores broader geopolitical consequences, suggesting that diminished support for Ukraine might weaken US influence globally and embolden adversaries like Iran, North Korea, and China.

Furthermore, the ISW states that US support for Ukraine signals its commitment to defending democracies worldwide against current and emergent threats. If Ukraine were abandoned, adversaries might take this as an indication that the US could similarly neglect its other allies, raising concerns about US commitments and alliances at large.

The Institute for the Study of War highlights the critical nature of ongoing military aid to Ukraine, stressing that its suspension could lead to significant geopolitical ramifications and a resurgence in Russian aggression. The continuing support not only aids Ukraine’s military efforts but also serves as a testament to the United States’ broader commitment to global democratic values. Ensuring that this assistance remains steady is pivotal for maintaining US influence and deterring adversaries on the world stage.

Original Source: euromaidanpress.com