Impact of Climate Change: Questions Surrounding La Niña’s Effectiveness

Climate change is becoming more pronounced, with La Niña’s cooling effects deemed insufficient in a warmer future. The IMD forecasts early summer with elevated temperatures and extended heatwaves. Historical data indicates record warmth in February and concerning rainfall trends. Notably, the WMO predicts the recent La Niña’s effects will be short-lived amidst ongoing warming, necessitating thorough climate adaptability measures.

Climate scientists have indicated that the impacts of climate change are becoming increasingly severe, questioning the efficacy of La Niña in mitigating these changes in a warming future. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecasted an early onset of summer characterized by elevated temperatures and prolonged heatwaves. Notably, February 2024 marked the warmest on record since 1901 while rainfall levels reached their fifth lowest since 2001.

The ongoing shifts in climate patterns have created a ‘new normal’ consisting of warmer winters and shortened springs, blended with year-on-year variability in weather. Arpita Mondal, an associate professor at IIT Bombay, highlighted that the current season reflects unusual dryness during winter, which disrupts the natural cooling that rainfall typically provides.

Raghu Murtugudde, an earth system scientist at IIT Bombay, observed a global fluctuation in temperature anomalies correlated with jet stream variations during the winter season. These jet streams, which are significant upper-atmospheric winds, modulate climatic conditions by altering their north-south position.

Moreover, the phases of El Niño and La Niña—natural climate phenomena—play a crucial role in influencing these climatic trends. Vimal Mishra from IIT Gandhinagar noted that under El Niño conditions, one can expect warmer springs, while La Niña typically produces cooler days. The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle oscillates between these phenomena, generally spanning 2-7 years.

Recent reports from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) stressed that the recently emerged “weak” La Niña is anticipated to be short-lived, having less impact in light of the ongoing warming trends. Furthermore, temperatures from March 2024 to February 2025 are projected to exceed past averages significantly, exacerbated by elevated sea surface temperatures.

Murtugudde commented that current patterns do not reflect a traditional La Niña as warm anomalies persist in the eastern Pacific region. This phenomenon has led to unexpected climate behaviors, closely linked to 2023’s record warmth. Studies predict that El Niño occurrences will likely intensify, with half of them being classified as extreme, which has global implications for climate stability.

In 2024, India experienced an unprecedented 536 heatwave days, notably the most recorded in 14 years, marking the northwest region’s warmest June since 1901, as indicated by the IMD. Mishra further declared that climate change remains the primary concern, intensifying heatwaves even amidst ENSO-neutral conditions expected this year. The WMO anticipates further ENSO-neutrality between March and May of 2025. Overall, climate change presents significant challenges; El Niño may aggravate conditions while La Niña might not afford much relief.

In summary, climate change has intensified, diminishing the effectiveness of La Niña in counteracting rising temperatures. The IMD’s forecasts point towards an increasingly warm and erratic climate, with phenomena such as El Niño potentially exacerbating conditions. As the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events rise, it becomes crucial to address the pressing issues posed by climate change, including its pervasive impact on weather patterns, particularly in India.

Original Source: www.theweek.in