2024 Early Voting Trends: A Comparative Analysis by Party Affiliation

New data on early voting shows likely Republicans matching likely Democrats in early in-person votes, while Democrats continue to lead overwhelmingly in mail-in ballots. This indicates a significant shift for Republicans in early voting patterns compared to previous elections.

As of 16 days prior to the November election, early in-person voting data reveals that the number of likely Republican voters casting their ballots is now comparable to that of likely Democratic voters. This marks a notable increase for Republicans when contrasted with their performance in early voting during previous election cycles from 2021 to 2023. However, likely Democratic voters continue to dominate in mail-in ballots, holding a significant margin of more than two-to-one, which appears consistent with trends from prior years. For a comprehensive look at early voting statistics broken down by locality, one may refer to VPAP’s Early Voting Dashboard. It is important to note that Virginia has no requirement for voters to register by party. Consequently, ballots are not counted until Election Day. To estimate the party affiliation of voters, the Virginia Public Access Project (VPAP) utilized the Virginia Daily Absentee List to match voter IDs against data from L2 Political, a firm that employs algorithms assessing factors such as previous participation in primary elections and demographic data. It should be highlighted that estimates for 2020 were excluded due to data constraints that resulted in over 20% of votes being categorized as “Unknown.”

The dynamics of early voting play a crucial role in the electoral process, particularly in Virginia, where early voting allows citizens to exercise their democratic rights ahead of Election Day. The data presented stems from the analysis of early voting patterns, focusing on party affiliation among voters. The significance of this data lies in understanding the evolving political landscape as the election approaches, elucidating potential shifts in voter turnout and engagement by party affiliation. For the 2024 election, the trends suggest a tightening race between the two major parties, specifically amidst changing voter behaviors and preferences. The methodology for estimating party affiliation is grounded in comprehensive data analysis, providing a clearer picture of the voting electorate ahead of the November elections.

In summary, the early voting trends observed 16 days before the November election indicate a pivotal moment for both likely Republican and Democratic voters, with Republicans achieving parity in early in-person voting compared to Democrats for the first time in recent cycles. Meanwhile, Democrats maintain a substantial lead in the mail-in ballot category. The insights drawn from this data are essential for understanding the forthcoming election and the potential implications for voter turnout.

Original Source: www.vpap.org