A Look Back at 2025 State Primary Election Competitiveness

• 2025 saw the lowest percentage of open seats since 2011.
• Contested primaries dropped below the average from 2011 to 2023.
• New Jersey, Virginia, and Wisconsin held significant primaries this year.
• Only three incumbents lost in the state legislative primaries in New Jersey.
• Overall, the levels of competition were lower across the board in 2025.

Diminishing Open Seats and Contested Primaries

In examining the 2025 state primary elections, an interesting pattern emerges regarding competitiveness. Compared to previous odd years, 2025 saw a notable decrease in the share of open seats, marking an all-time low since 2011. According to Ballotpedia, the data from this year reflected that only 5.9% of the total seats were open, a stark contrast to the higher percentages seen in earlier cycles.

Competitive Landscape in Key States

In addition to fewer open seats, the rates of contested primaries also took a dip, clocking in at just 17.6%. This is below the historical average of 19.7% for the years spanning from 2011 to 2023. Moreover, the competitiveness among incumbents also reflected a slight increase, with 22.4% facing challenges, a mere tick above the long-term average of 21.8%. Future implications are profound as these statistics could signal changing electoral dynamics in these states.

Primary Elections Breakdown by State

When breaking it down by state, New Jersey held primaries for significant positions including governor and General Assembly, which oversees the lower legislative chamber. Meanwhile, Virginia’s primaries included contests for governor, lieutenant governor, and attorney general, alongside those for the House of Delegates. In Wisconsin, a non-partisan primary for the superintendent of public instruction was notably held. All three states managed to conduct only 51 primaries from a pool of 289, targeting 185 total seats available for election.

The 2025 state primary elections demonstrated a decline in both open seats and competitive primaries compared to earlier years. Notably, incumbents in New Jersey faced the biggest challenges, marking a shift in voter sentiment. With no incumbents losing in state executive categories, the dynamics of future elections may evolve in unexpected ways, reflecting changing political landscapes in these states.