Will Japan’s Anti-Immigrant Far-Right Parties Win More Votes?

• Japan’s election sees rise in anti-immigrant rhetoric.
• Populist parties mirror strategies of Trump’s Republicans.
• Sanseito’s growth signals a shift in political dynamics.
• LDP faces challenges amid scandals, polling low.
• Potential for a hung election could reshape power structures.

Populist Parties Capitalize on Anti-Immigrant Sentiments

As Japan stands on the brink of a crucial upper house election, the political landscape is witnessing a notable shift. Populist parties, particularly those on the far-right, are ramping up anti-immigrant rhetoric, an approach reminiscent of strategies employed by hard-right movements in Europe and, notably, the Republicans under former President Donald Trump. The rhetoric is merely one dimension of a broader campaign where candidates discuss pressing local issues such as inflation, job security, and defense policy, but the rising tide of anti-immigrant sentiment cannot be ignored as it reframes national discourse.

Sanseito’s Rise Fuels Uncertainty in Election Results

Leading the charge is the ultraconservative party Sanseito, founded just three years ago in 2020. Despite its support being relatively modest, at 5.9 percent according to a July 11 NHK poll, it is currently polling fourth among the ten parties vying for seats in the House of Councillors election. This electoral positioning is significant—over 33 percent of the electorate remains undecided, raising the possibility that Sanseito could significantly impact the outcome of the elections. Analysts predict that the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), which is grappling with a series of scandals and only polling at 24 percent, may not achieve a clear majority, which could lead to complicated negotiations after the election.

Potential Power Shifts Amidst Rising Far-Right Movement

The consequences of this political climate could be profound, giving hardline parties more weight in government negotiations, particularly if the LDP is unable to gain a foothold. It opens up a scenario where established parties may need to negotiate with smaller, right-leaning factions like the Conservative Party of Japan, the Japan Innovation Party, or the Democratic Party for the People to maintain governmental power. Such dynamics have led figures like conservative historian Hiromichi Moteki, once a staunch LDP supporter, to express his frustrations with current leadership—characterizing Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba as ‘hopeless’. The strength and appeal of far-right parties appear to present a formidable challenge to traditional power structures in Japan.

In summary, Japan’s upcoming House of Councillors election may see far-right parties leveraging anti-immigrant rhetoric to gain traction among undecided voters. The potential for a hung election could significantly reshape power dynamics, paving the way for ultraconservative factions like Sanseito to attain a role in government. As the political landscape shifts, the effectiveness of these anti-immigrant strategies against a backdrop of disillusionment with the ruling party remains to be seen.