Forecast of Above-Normal Rainfall for the Greater Horn of Africa from June to September 2024

The IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre predicts above-normal rainfall across the Greater Horn of Africa from June to September 2024, with potential flooding risks particularly in South Sudan and Sudan. This critical rainy season significantly contributes to annual rainfall, essential for agriculture and water management. The forecast underscores the importance of seasonal outlooks for effective decision-making in weather-sensitive sectors.

The Greater Horn of Africa is forecast to experience above-normal rainfall from June to September 2024, according to the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC), which functions as a regional climate center under the auspices of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). This rainy season is critical, contributing over 90% of the annual precipitation in the northern regions and around 40% in the southern parts. The predicted conditions echo the notable weather patterns observed in 1998 and 2010, raising concerns about potential flooding, particularly in South Sudan and Sudan. Several countries, including Burundi, Kenya, Rwanda, the United Republic of Tanzania, as well as parts of Ethiopia, Somalia, and Uganda, which have recently faced significant flooding, will transition into their dry season during this forecast period. This seasonal climate outlook is essential for informed decision-making in vital sectors such as agriculture, health, and water resource management, and forms part of the comprehensive support provided by the WMO’s Early Warnings for All initiative. The forecast was presented at the Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum, a pivotal event uniting climate scientists, government representatives, non-governmental organizations, and other stakeholders in climate-sensitive sectors. For over twenty years, the WMO has backed regional climate outlook forums that deliver actionable climate forecasts aimed at preserving lives and enhancing livelihoods while supporting critical domains such as food security and disaster risk reduction. ICPAC has adopted an objective approach to generate climate forecasts by utilizing initialized seasonal predictions from nine Global Producing Centres (GPCs), coupled with three distinct calibration techniques. An early to normal onset of the rainy season is anticipated in areas such as central and northern Ethiopia, Eritrea, Sudan, and South Sudan, whereas a delayed onset is expected in Djibouti and parts of eastern and western Ethiopia, as well as other areas within central and western Sudan and southern South Sudan. The temperature forecast indicates a likelihood of warmer-than-normal conditions predominating throughout the region, especially over northern Sudan, central and western Ethiopia, Somalia, Kenya, Rwanda, Burundi, and Tanzania.

The Greater Horn of Africa is a diverse region severely impacted by climate variability, where rainfall patterns significantly influence agriculture, water resources, and local economies. The rainy season from June to September is particularly crucial, as it provides the majority of annual rainfall essential for crop cultivation and water replenishment in both northern and southern areas of the region. Understanding climate forecasts is vital for mitigating risks associated with extreme weather, such as flooding or drought, which can have devastating impacts on communities.

In conclusion, the forecast of above-normal rainfall over the Greater Horn of Africa from June to September 2024 presents both opportunities and challenges. While the additional precipitation could support agricultural productivity, the risk of flooding in vulnerable areas necessitates preparedness and proactive management strategies. The collaborative efforts across sectors and the utilization of precise climate forecasts are crucial for minimizing potential adverse impacts while enhancing resilience within affected communities. By adhering to the guidelines provided by the International and regional entities, stakeholders can better position themselves to navigate the anticipated climate conditions.

Original Source: wmo.int